Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 87.24%. A draw had a probability of 9.2% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 3.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.93%) and 4-0 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.36%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (1.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
87.24% ( 0.01) | 9.16% ( -0) | 3.6% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 38.66% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.83% ( -0.01) | 30.17% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.6% ( -0.01) | 51.39% ( 0.01) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.43% ( 0) | 4.57% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
81.34% | 18.66% |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
40.51% ( -0.02) | 59.48% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
9.61% ( -0.01) | 90.38% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
3-0 @ 13.31% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 12.93% 4-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.91% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( -0) 5-0 @ 6.34% ( 0) 4-1 @ 5.34% ( -0) 5-1 @ 3.29% ( -0) 6-0 @ 3.26% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0) 7-0 @ 1.44% 4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0) Other @ 4.16% Total : 87.23% | 1-1 @ 4.36% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.72% ( 0) 2-2 @ 1.75% ( -0) Other @ 0.34% Total : 9.16% | 0-1 @ 1.41% 1-2 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 1.05% Total : 3.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
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