Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 18.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 1-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-2 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Cagliari |
61.01% ( -0.09) | 20.29% ( 0.04) | 18.69% ( 0.05) |
Both teams to score 58.62% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.49% ( -0.11) | 37.5% ( 0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.26% ( -0.11) | 59.73% ( 0.11) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.09% ( -0.06) | 11.9% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.77% ( -0.12) | 37.23% ( 0.12) |
Cagliari Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.53% ( -0.02) | 33.46% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.9% ( -0.02) | 70.09% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Cagliari |
2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.41% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.18% Total : 61.01% | 1-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.98% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 20.29% | 1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( 0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 18.69% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 50 |
2 | Inter Milan | 20 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 51 | 18 | 33 | 47 |
3 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 43 |
4 | Lazio | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 28 | 9 | 39 |
5 | Juventus | 21 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 37 |
6 | Fiorentina | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 33 |
7 | Bologna | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 33 |
8 | AC Milan | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 31 |
9 | Roma | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 27 |
10 | Udinese | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 26 |
11 | Torino | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 23 |
12 | Genoa | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 23 |
13 | Como | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 22 |
14 | CagliariCagliari | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 21 |
15 | Empoli | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 20 |
16 | Parma | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 20 |
17 | Lecce | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 36 | -21 | 20 |
18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 47 | -23 | 19 |
19 | VeneziaVenezia | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 15 |
20 | Monza | 21 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 13 |
> Serie A Full Table |