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Serie A | Gameweek 36
May 11, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Cagliari logo

AC Milan
5 - 1
Cagliari

Bennacer (35'), Pulisic (59', 86'), Reijnders (74'), Leao (83')
Bennacer (28'), Gabbia (33')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Nandez (63')
Mina (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Cagliari, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cagliari 1-1 Lecce
Sunday, May 5 at 11.30am in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-1 Cagliari

Although Milan are clearly running out of steam as the season nears its end and are set to make several changes, Cagliari do not travel well and have a horrendous record in this fixture. Therefore, the hosts should win their first match for over a month. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 18.69%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 1-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-2 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawCagliari
61.01% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09) 20.29% (0.036999999999999 0.04) 18.69% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
Both teams to score 58.62% (-0.052 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.49% (-0.106 -0.11)37.5% (0.107 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.26% (-0.11499999999999 -0.11)59.73% (0.114 0.11)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.09% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)11.9% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.77% (-0.118 -0.12)37.23% (0.117 0.12)
Cagliari Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.53% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)33.46% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.9% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)70.09% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 61.01%
    Cagliari 18.69%
    Draw 20.29%
AC MilanDrawCagliari
2-1 @ 9.88% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.02% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.48% (0.025 0.03)
3-1 @ 7.01% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-0 @ 6.4% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.84% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.73% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.41% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.59% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.45% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 4.18%
Total : 61.01%
1-1 @ 9.28% (0.023 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.41% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 3.98% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.4% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 20.29%
1-2 @ 5.08% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.36% (0.021 0.02)
0-2 @ 2.39% (0.01 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.97% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 1.85% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 18.69%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Cagliari

AC Milan
81.5%
Draw
12.0%
Cagliari
6.5%
108
Head to Head
Jan 2, 2024 8pm
Round of 16
AC Milan
4-1
Cagliari
Jovic (29', 42'), Traore (50'), Leao (90+1')
Azzi (87')
Di Pardo (59'), Deiola (70'), Azzi (88')
Sep 27, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 6
Cagliari
1-3
AC Milan
Luvumbo (29')
Wieteska (42'), Zappa (53'), Oristanio (78')
Okafor (40'), Tomori (45'), Loftus-Cheek (60')
Loftus-Cheek (48')
Mar 19, 2022 7.45pm
Aug 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
AC Milan
4-1
Cagliari
Tonali (12'), Leao (17'), Giroud (24', 43' pen.)
Diaz (73')
Deiola (15')
Henrique (5'), Deiola (38'), Strootman (41'), Godin (62'), Nandez (84')
May 16, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 37
AC Milan
0-0
Cagliari
Kjaer (33'), Calabria (58')
Marin (40'), Carboni (45+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli21162335142150
2Inter Milan20145151183347
3Atalanta BCAtalanta21134446242243
4Lazio2112363728939
5Juventus21813034171737
6Fiorentina2096533211233
7Bologna208933226633
8AC Milan208752921831
9Roma217683127427
10Udinese217592432-826
11Torino215882126-523
12Genoa215881830-1223
13Como215792634-822
14CagliariCagliari2156102334-1121
15Empoli214892028-820
16Parma214892636-1020
17Lecce2155111536-2120
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2161142447-2319
19VeneziaVenezia2136121934-1515
20Monza2127122031-1113


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