Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.96%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.09% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
Result | ||
Cagliari | Draw | Roma |
29.09% ( 0.83) | 27.95% ( -0.05) | 42.96% ( -0.79) |
Both teams to score 46.24% ( 0.56) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.6% ( 0.5) | 59.39% ( -0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.22% ( 0.38) | 79.77% ( -0.39) |
Cagliari Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.68% ( 0.93) | 36.32% ( -0.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.89% ( 0.93) | 73.1% ( -0.94) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.61% ( -0.19) | 27.39% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.14% ( -0.24) | 62.86% ( 0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Cagliari | Draw | Roma |
1-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 6.61% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.91% Total : 29.08% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.95% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.94% | 0-1 @ 12.88% ( -0.31) 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.34% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.85% Total : 42.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 47 |
2 | Inter Milan | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 48 | 17 | 31 | 44 |
3 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 44 | 21 | 23 | 43 |
4 | Lazio | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
5 | Juventus | 20 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 |
6 | Fiorentina | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
7 | AC Milan | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 31 |
8 | Bologna | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 30 |
9 | Roma | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 27 |
10 | Udinese | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 26 |
11 | Genoa | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 23 |
12 | Torino | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 22 |
13 | Empoli | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 20 |
14 | Lecce | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 20 |
15 | Parma | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 19 |
16 | Como | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 19 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 19 |
18 | CagliariCagliari | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 18 |
19 | VeneziaVenezia | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
20 | Monza | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 13 |
> Serie A Full Table |