Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 19.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
Result | ||
Fiorentina | Draw | Cagliari |
56.5% ( 0.77) | 23.62% ( 0.03) | 19.87% ( -0.8) |
Both teams to score 49.61% ( -1.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.56% ( -1.11) | 50.44% ( 1.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.63% ( -0.99) | 72.37% ( 0.99) |
Fiorentina Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.34% ( -0.13) | 17.66% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.72% ( -0.22) | 48.28% ( 0.22) |
Cagliari Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.25% ( -1.48) | 39.75% ( 1.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.58% ( -1.39) | 76.42% ( 1.39) |
Score Analysis |
Fiorentina | Draw | Cagliari |
1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 10.55% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 56.5% | 1-1 @ 11.22% 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.88% Total : 23.61% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.33% Total : 19.87% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 37 |
2 | Napoli | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 35 |
3 | Inter Milan | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 34 |
4 | Fiorentina | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 31 |
5 | Lazio | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 31 |
6 | Juventus | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 |
7 | Bologna | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 25 |
8 | AC Milan | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
9 | Udinese | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 20 |
10 | Empoli | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 19 |
11 | Torino | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 19 |
12 | Roma | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 16 |
13 | Genoa | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Lecce | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 16 |
15 | Parma | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 15 |
16 | Como | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 15 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 15 |
18 | CagliariCagliari | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 14 |
19 | Monza | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
20 | VeneziaVenezia | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 10 |
> Serie A Full Table |