Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 69.12%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 10.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.33%) and 3-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.22%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
Result | ||
Lazio | Draw | Salernitana |
69.12% ( -0.08) | 19.9% ( 0.05) | 10.99% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 40.52% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.45% ( -0.14) | 51.55% ( 0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.66% ( -0.12) | 73.34% ( 0.13) |
Lazio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.14% ( -0.06) | 13.86% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.75% ( -0.13) | 41.25% ( 0.14) |
Salernitana Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
47.04% ( -0.03) | 52.96% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.38% ( -0.02) | 86.62% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Lazio | Draw | Salernitana |
1-0 @ 14.5% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 14.33% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 4.66% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.23% Total : 69.11% | 1-1 @ 9.22% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 2.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.44% Total : 19.9% | 0-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.93% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.91% Total : 10.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 53 |
2 | Inter Milan | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 55 | 18 | 37 | 50 |
3 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 25 | 23 | 46 |
4 | Lazio | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 39 |
5 | Juventus | 22 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 37 |
6 | Fiorentina | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 36 |
7 | AC Milan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 34 |
8 | Bologna | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 34 |
9 | Roma | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 30 |
10 | Torino | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 26 |
11 | Udinese | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 26 |
12 | Genoa | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 26 |
13 | Como | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 22 |
14 | Empoli | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 21 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 21 |
16 | Parma | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 20 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 20 |
18 | Lecce | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 20 |
19 | VeneziaVenezia | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 16 |
20 | Monza | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 13 |
> Serie A Full Table |