Serie A | Gameweek 31
Apr 6, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma1 - 0Lazio
We said: Roma 1-0 Lazio
Roma have not won a Derby della Capitale since March 2022, but with both momentum and club icon Daniele De Rossi on their side, they can end that drought this weekend. Goal-shy Lazio are still a work in progress under Igor Tudor, who is trying to unpick two years of 'Sarri-ball'. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Lazio |
57% ( 0.16) | 22.81% ( -0.01) | 20.19% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.3% ( -0.16) | 46.7% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.04% ( -0.15) | 68.96% ( 0.15) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.85% ( 0) | 16.15% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.41% ( 0) | 45.59% ( -0) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.73% ( -0.25) | 37.27% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.95% ( -0.25) | 74.05% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
Roma 56.99%
Lazio 20.19%
Draw 22.81%
| Roma | Draw | Lazio |
| 1-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.74% 4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.24% Total : 56.99% | 1-1 @ 10.83% 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.81% | 0-1 @ 5.94% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.64% Total : 20.19% |
How you voted: Roma vs Lazio
Roma
74.8%Draw
17.4%Lazio
7.7%155
Head to Head
Jan 10, 2024 5pm
Quarter-Finals
Lazio
1-0
Roma
Zaccagni (51' pen.)
Castellanos (60'), Guendouzi (65'), Pellegrini (90+3'), Pedro (90+5')
Pedro (90+6')
Castellanos (60'), Guendouzi (65'), Pellegrini (90+3'), Pedro (90+5')
Pedro (90+6')
Mar 19, 2023 5pm
Nov 6, 2022 5pm
Mar 20, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 30
Roma
3-0
Lazio
