Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Alessandria had a probability of 27.97% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Alessandria win was 0-1 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.