MX23RW : Thursday, January 30 18:07:50| >> :600:1698029:1698029:
Nacional
Taca da Liga | Group Stage
Dec 22, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio da Madeira (Funchal (Ilha da Madeira))
Braga

Nacional
1 - 3
Braga

Gomes (62')
Margarido (0'), Gustavo (70'), Esteves (74'), Witi (77')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Moutinho (16' pen.), Niakate (24'), Horta (44')
Niakate (45+4'), Moutinho (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Taca da Liga clash between Nacional and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia (6-5 pen.)
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal

Braga

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Braga 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, December 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Nacional 0-3 Braga

 While Nacional have been very good in Liga Portugal 2 this season, they face a huge step up in class of opponents here and are likely to struggle to claim a point in this group. Despite Braga heading into this match following back-to-back cup and league defeats, we fancy the Primeira Liga outfit to secure the win and their place in the next round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.8%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 23.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Nacional win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawBraga
23.14% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02) 22.06% (-0.012 -0.01) 54.8% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Both teams to score 59.44% (0.026000000000003 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.35% (0.045999999999999 0.05)39.65% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38% (0.047000000000004 0.05)62% (-0.041999999999994 -0.04)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.48% (0.0069999999999908 0.01)30.52% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.25% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)66.74% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.56% (0.033000000000001 0.03)14.44% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.61% (0.055999999999997 0.06)42.39% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 23.14%
    Braga 54.8%
    Draw 22.06%
NacionalDrawBraga
2-1 @ 6.01% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-0 @ 5.23% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 3.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 2.38% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.3%
3-0 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 23.14%
1-1 @ 10.12% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.81% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.41% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.48% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.06%
1-2 @ 9.79% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-1 @ 8.53% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.25%
1-3 @ 6.32% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 5.32% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.75% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 3.06% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-4 @ 2.58% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.81% (0.004 0)
1-5 @ 1.18% (0.004 0)
0-5 @ 1% (0.003 0)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 54.8%

How you voted: Nacional vs Braga

Nacional
17.4%
Draw
21.7%
Braga
60.9%
23
Head to Head
Apr 25, 2023 7.30pm
Semi-Finals 2nd Leg
Braga
2-2
Nacional
Racic (33' pen.), Gomes (48')
Clayton (72'), Dudu (90+3' pen.)
> Preview
Apr 12, 2023 7.30pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Nacional
0-5
Braga
Racic (25', 53'), Pizzi (43'), Banza (76' pen., 90+1')
> Preview
Feb 28, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 21
Nacional
1-2
Braga
Riascos (69')
Pedrao (59')
Fransergio (25'), Ruiz (29')
> Preview
Oct 17, 2020 6pm
Gameweek 4
Braga
2-1
Nacional
Fransergio (28'), Medeiros (42')
Sequeira (76')
Borges (86')
Ramos (31'), Kal (36'), Freitas (70'), Azouni (89')
Jan 18, 2019 6.45pm
Gameweek 18
Nacional
0-3
Braga

Riascos (10'), Ferreira (72')
Horta (61'), Murilo (73'), Paulinho (86')
Santos (10'), Sousa (14')
rhs 2.0
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