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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 6
Mar 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
2 - 1
Connah's Quay

Lloyd (53'), Williams (58')
Donohue (15'), Williams (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Davies (90+6' pen.)
Roberts (65')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay Nomads.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bala Town 1-1 Caernarfon
Friday, March 8 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions
Last Game: Connah's Quay 1-5 New Saints
Friday, March 8 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 66.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 15.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.55%) and 0-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
15.28% (0.0020000000000007 0) 18.5% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03) 66.21% (0.024999999999991 0.02)
Both teams to score 57.59% (0.118 0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.63% (0.14700000000001 0.15)35.37% (-0.148 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.6% (0.16399999999999 0.16)57.39% (-0.165 -0.16)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.94% (0.097000000000001 0.1)36.05% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.17% (0.101 0.1)72.83% (-0.10100000000001 -0.1)
Connah's Quay Nomads Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.05% (0.046000000000006 0.05)9.94% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.11% (0.10799999999999 0.11)32.89% (-0.109 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 15.28%
    Connah's Quay Nomads 66.21%
    Draw 18.5%
Caernarfon TownDrawConnah's Quay Nomads
2-1 @ 4.31%
1-0 @ 3.66% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-0 @ 1.87% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 1.69% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.46% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 15.28%
1-1 @ 8.44% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.58% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.3% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 18.5%
1-2 @ 9.74% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.55% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-1 @ 8.27% (-0.045 -0.04)
1-3 @ 7.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 7.35% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 4.33% (0.014 0.01)
0-4 @ 4.24% (0.0029999999999992 0)
2-3 @ 3.83% (0.016 0.02)
2-4 @ 2.21% (0.013 0.01)
1-5 @ 2% (0.011 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.96% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-5 @ 1.02% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 4.23%
Total : 66.21%

Head to Head
Feb 2, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 1
Connah's Quay
1-1
Caernarfon
Harrington (75')
Bratley (70'), Morris (90+4')
Wilde (59')
Davies (22')
Williams (89')
Oct 27, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 14
Connah's Quay
6-1
Caernarfon
Franklin (2', 6', 11', 45+2'), Kenny (45+8'), Williams (73')
Kenny (20')
Lloyd (79')
Williams (14'), Maher (54'), Lloyd (90')
Sep 1, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Caernarfon
0-4
Connah's Quay

Thomas (37'), Austin (61'), Donohue (71'), Gosset (75')
Poole (10'), Kenny (55'), Davies (70' pen.), Edwards (77')
Nov 18, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Connah's Quay
3-3
Caernarfon
Nash (69'), Malkin (74', 90+4')
O'Rourke (10'), Faux (50'), Marsh-Hughes (65')
Sep 27, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Caernarfon
0-2
Connah's Quay
Stratulis (70'), Edwards (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Championship Round
1The New SaintsNew Saints25200569274260
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont25156443222151
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest25129433141945
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU2511593734338
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2511593938138
6Bala TownBala Town2571173229332
Relegation Round
1Barry Town UnitedBarry2510783841-337
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2585123429529
3Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2582153251-1926
4Briton Ferry2574143850-1225
5Newtown AFCNewtown2556142750-2321
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2552182259-3717
 
Regular Season
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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