With a trip to the quarter-finals of the US Open on the line, Jannik Sinner will face Tommy Paul for the first time in a Grand Slam on Monday at Flushing Meadows.
The top-ranked Italian ousted Christopher O'Connell in his previous match 6-1 6-4 6-2, while Paul came back to beat Gabriel Diallo 6-7 (7-5) 6-3 6-1 7-6 (7-3).
Match preview
© Imago
Losing the first set in his opening match at this tournament appears to have been the wake-up call Jannik Sinner needed to raise his level of play on the hard court.
The reigning Australian Open champion has not dropped a set since being stunned 6-2 in set one of his match versus Mackenzie McDonald, making the fourth round of this tournament for a fourth successive year.
On Saturday, his service game was as good as we have seen at Flushing Meadows this year, hitting 15 aces while winning 82% of his first serve points.
Monday will be his sixth successive appearance in round four of a Grand Slam, with Sinner losing out at this stage of the 2021 and 2023 US Open singles events versus Alexander Zverev on both occasions.
This upcoming encounter will be his fifth all-time singles match against an American player at this event, with Sinner winning all five of those previous contests.
Although he has only won 60% of his first serve points on the hard court this year, the 23-year-old has countered that by winning 92% of his service games on that surface.
© Imago
While Sinner was overpowering on his serve, it was the opposite for Tommy Paul in his third-round fixture, as the New Jersey-born player won 72 points on his opponent's serve.
Thanks to that outstanding return game, he is in the fourth round of this tournament for a second successive occasion, with a chance to make a second straight Grand Slam quarter-final in 2024.
Against his Canadian opponent this past weekend, the 27-year-old secured five break points, putting him one match victory away from a first-ever quarter-final appearance at Flushing Meadows.
Like his upcoming opponent in 2024, Paul is clicking at 60% on his first serves on the hard court but has often emerged victorious from his service games, winning 81% of them on that surface this year.
At this stage of the 2023 US Open, the aggressive American was beaten in four sets by fellow American Ben Shelton 4-6 3-6 6-4 4-6.
Paul has a career record of 2-1 versus Italian players on the men's singles draw at Flushing Meadows, losing his first-round match in 2015 to Andreas Seppi in straight sets while getting past Stefano Travaglia and Lorenzo Sonego in four sets at that same stage in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
First round: vs. Mackenzie McDonald 2-6 6-2 6-1 6-2
Second round: vs. Alex Michelsen 6-4 6-0 6-2
Third round: vs. Christopher O'Connell 6-1 6-4 6-2
Tommy Paul:
First round: vs. Lorenzo Sonego 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2
Second round: vs. Max Purcell 7-5 6-0 1-0 (walkover)
Third round: vs. Gabriel Diallo 6-7 (7-5) 6-3 6-1 7-6 (7-3)
Head To Head
Madrid Open (2022)- First round- Sinner wins 6-7 (4) 7-6 (4) 6-3
Viking International (2022)- Round two- Paul wins 6-3 3-6 6-3
National Bank Open (2023)- Semi-finals- Sinner wins 6-4 6-4
Over two years ago, when these players first met, Sinner had a decisive edge on second serves, winning 66% of his, while Paul only won 44%.
Just over a month later, when they met again, the American had a slight edge on second serves, 59% to 53%, which was enough for him to emerge victorious as the two were dead even on first serves at 81%.
Sinner won 78% of his first serves at the National Bank Open last year, with Paul winning just 60% of his, enabling the Italian to triumph in straight sets.
We say: Sinner to win in four sets
Paul should have the crowd in his corner, which could be a big boost, but Sinner's resilience and overall game has been elite over the past two matches, which we do not believe will regress by Monday.
