Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 36.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
39.06% ( 0.31) | 24.64% ( 0.03) | 36.29% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 59.01% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.97% ( -0.17) | 44.03% ( 0.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.59% ( -0.17) | 66.41% ( 0.17) |
Sydney FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.54% ( 0.08) | 22.46% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44% ( 0.12) | 56% ( -0.11) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.1% ( -0.26) | 23.9% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.89% ( -0.38) | 58.11% ( 0.38) |
Score Analysis |
Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.35% Total : 39.06% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.64% | 1-2 @ 8.21% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 7.68% 0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.05% Total : 36.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
7 | Macarthur | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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