Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kalmar win with a probability of 44.16%. A win for Sirius had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kalmar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Sirius win was 0-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kalmar would win this match.