Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 63.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 14.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.