FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 12, 2025 at 4.30pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton3 - 0Swansea
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Southampton 0-5 Brentford
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Goals
for
for
12
Last Game: Swansea 1-1 West Brom
Saturday, January 4 at 12.30pm in Championship
Saturday, January 4 at 12.30pm in Championship
Goals
for
for
30
We said: Southampton 1-2 Swansea City
This is a tricky game to call, as Southampton have struggled all season and it is difficult to see them winning anywhere at the moment. The nature of the Brentford result last weekend would have been a crushing blow to the new management team, and we think Swansea will pile on the misery here with a slight upset at St Mary's this weekend. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 55%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 22.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Swansea City |
22.86% ( 0.01) | 22.15% | 55% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 58.75% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
