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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 72.49%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 10.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.67%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.86%), while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Freiburg |
72.49% ( 0.17) | 16.67% ( -0.09) | 10.85% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 50.6% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.23% ( 0.25) | 37.77% ( -0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.99% ( 0.27) | 60.02% ( -0.26) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.91% ( 0.11) | 9.1% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.1% ( 0.24) | 30.9% ( -0.24) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.66% ( 0.04) | 44.34% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.6% ( 0.03) | 80.4% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Freiburg |
2-0 @ 11.59% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.51% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.15% Total : 72.49% | 1-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.83% ( -0) Other @ 0.94% Total : 16.67% | 0-1 @ 3.28% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 2% Total : 10.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 36 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
5 | Mainz 05Mainz | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
6 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 25 |
7 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Freiburg | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 24 |
10 | Stuttgart | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Wolfsburg | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 16 |
14 | St Pauli | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
16 | Heidenheim | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 8 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 35 | -22 | 6 |
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