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Bundesliga | Gameweek 9
Oct 29, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
BayArena
Freiburg logo

B. Leverkusen
2 - 1
Freiburg

Wirtz (36'), Hofmann (60')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Gulde (70')
Kubler (14'), Streich (90+3'), Holer (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 5-1 Qarabag
Thursday, October 26 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Backa Topola 1-3 Freiburg
Thursday, October 26 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Freiburg

Both teams could be a little tired after their exertions in the Europa League on Thursday, but we can envisage Leverkusen's greater squad depth - and fewer amount of injuries - helping them towards a fifth successive victory in the Bundesliga and ending another matchday at the top of the table in the process. Freiburg have not looked quite as strong as in recent seasons, and while they should still have more than enough quality to secure another top half finish, competing for the top six once again may prove beyond them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 63.72%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 16.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.86%) and 1-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Bayer Leverkusen in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Bayer Leverkusen.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawFreiburg
63.72% (0.16 0.16) 19.75% (0.174 0.17) 16.53% (-0.334 -0.33)
Both teams to score 56.02% (-1.394 -1.39)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.2% (-1.466 -1.47)38.8% (1.465 1.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.89% (-1.562 -1.56)61.12% (1.562 1.56)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.44% (-0.389 -0.39)11.56% (0.389 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.5% (-0.845 -0.84)36.5% (0.846 0.85)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.34% (-1.294 -1.29)36.66% (1.293 1.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.55% (-1.325 -1.33)73.45% (1.325 1.33)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 63.72%
    Freiburg 16.53%
    Draw 19.75%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawFreiburg
2-1 @ 9.9% (0.034999999999998 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.86% (0.374 0.37)
1-0 @ 9.14% (0.484 0.48)
3-1 @ 7.12% (-0.087 -0.09)
3-0 @ 7.1% (0.161 0.16)
4-1 @ 3.84% (-0.108 -0.11)
4-0 @ 3.83% (0.028 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.57% (-0.174 -0.17)
4-2 @ 1.93% (-0.126 -0.13)
5-1 @ 1.66% (-0.073 -0.07)
5-0 @ 1.65% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 4.12%
Total : 63.72%
1-1 @ 9.18% (0.175 0.18)
2-2 @ 4.97% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 4.24% (0.287 0.29)
3-3 @ 1.2% (-0.103 -0.1)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 19.75%
1-2 @ 4.6% (-0.074 -0.07)
0-1 @ 4.25% (0.146 0.15)
0-2 @ 2.13% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.66% (-0.115 -0.12)
1-3 @ 1.54% (-0.081 -0.08)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 16.53%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Freiburg

Bayer Leverkusen
92.5%
Draw
3.0%
Freiburg
4.5%
67
Head to Head
Feb 26, 2023 2.30pm
Sep 3, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 5
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Freiburg
Demirbay (16'), Schick (65')
Tah (5'), Amiri (82')
Ginter (48'), Gregoritsch (51'), Doan (72')
Hofler (34'), Gregoritsch (53')
May 14, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 34
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Freiburg
Alario (54'), Palacios (90+7')
Diaby (18'), Baumgartlinger (26')
Haberer (88')
Eggestein (3'), Schlotterbeck (43'), Sildillia (77')
Dec 19, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 17
Freiburg
2-1
B. Leverkusen
Grifo (33' pen.), Schade (84')
Schlotterbeck (30'), Holer (86')
Aranguiz (45+1')
Frimpong (32'), Andrich (39'), Odilon (82')
Feb 28, 2021 5pm
Gameweek 23
B. Leverkusen
1-2
Freiburg
Bailey (70')
Aranguiz (68'), Bailey (71')
Demirovic (50'), Holer (61')
Demirovic (21'), Hofler (73'), Sallai (77')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen31256077225581
2Bayern MunichBayern31223689385169
3Stuttgart31204770383264
4RB Leipzig31195773353862
5Borussia DortmundDortmund31169659392057
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt31111284742545
7Freiburg31117134355-1240
8Augsburg31109124852-439
9Hoffenheim31116145563-839
10Heidenheim31910124452-837
11Werder Bremen31107144150-937
12Wolfsburg3197153751-1434
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach31711135360-732
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin3186172650-2430
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum31612133762-2530
16Mainz 05Mainz31513133249-1728
17FC Koln31411162454-3023
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3138203073-4317


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