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Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 14, 2025 at 7.30pm UK
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B. Leverkusen
vs.
Mainz

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-3 B. Leverkusen
Friday, January 10 at 7.45pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 2-0 VfL Bochum
Saturday, January 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We say: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz 05

 Mainz are unlikely to be beaten easily on Tuesday, and it would not be surprising if the game was a closely fought contest. Leverkusen should be considered slight favourites given their excellent home record, and they could find joy during counter-attacks if Mainz are forced to push further forward in the event that the hosts take the lead. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 76.08%. A draw has a probability of 14.6% and a win for Mainz 05 has a probability of 9.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win is 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Mainz 05 win it is 1-2 (2.82%).

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
76.08% (0.64399999999999 0.64) 14.59% (0.052 0.05) 9.33% (-0.692 -0.69)
Both teams to score 52.72% (-3.417 -3.42)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.86% (-2.728 -2.73)32.13% (2.731 2.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.28% (-3.252 -3.25)53.72% (3.254 3.25)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.01% (-0.48 -0.48)6.99% (0.483 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.41% (-1.299 -1.3)25.59% (1.301 1.3)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.68% (-3.362 -3.36)43.32% (3.365 3.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.44% (-2.948 -2.95)79.56% (2.951 2.95)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 76.07%
    Mainz 05 9.33%
    Draw 14.59%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 10.71% (1.006 1.01)
3-0 @ 9.51% (0.668 0.67)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.064 0.06)
1-0 @ 8.06% (0.953 0.95)
3-1 @ 7.95% (-0.157 -0.16)
4-0 @ 6.32% (0.286 0.29)
4-1 @ 5.29% (-0.249 -0.25)
5-0 @ 3.36% (0.065 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.33% (-0.393 -0.39)
5-1 @ 2.82% (-0.211 -0.21)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.328 -0.33)
6-0 @ 1.49% (-0.01 -0.01)
6-1 @ 1.25% (-0.13 -0.13)
5-2 @ 1.18% (-0.21 -0.21)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 76.07%
1-1 @ 6.74% (0.223 0.22)
2-2 @ 3.75% (-0.334 -0.33)
0-0 @ 3.03% (0.428 0.43)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.21 -0.21)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 14.59%
1-2 @ 2.82% (-0.17 -0.17)
0-1 @ 2.53% (0.148 0.15)
0-2 @ 1.06% (-0.034 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.05% (-0.203 -0.2)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 9.33%

Who will win Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between B. Leverkusen and Mainz?

Bayer Leverkusen
Draw
Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
100%
Draw
0.0%
Mainz 05
0.0%
2
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Mainz
Xhaka (3'), Andrich (68')
Frimpong (45+1'), Alonso (45+1'), Tah (49'), Wirtz (74')
Kohr (7')
Onisiwo (42'), Kohr (52'), Zentner (54'), Caci (66'), Mwene (85')
Ngankam (80')
> Preview
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')
Van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Mainz
Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
> Preview
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern16123148133539
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen16105140231735
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1693436231330
4RB Leipzig169342822630
5Mainz 05Mainz1684430201028
6Freiburg168352426-227
7Stuttgart167543025526
8Borussia DortmundDortmund167453025525
9Werder Bremen167452829-125
10Wolfsburg167363328524
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach167362521424
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin164571421-717
13Augsburg164481733-1616
14St Pauli1642101220-814
15Hoffenheim163582029-914
16Heidenheim1641112033-1313
17Holstein Kiel1622122141-208
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1613121337-246
> Bundesliga Full Table


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