We said: Red Star Belgrade 3-1 FC Pyunik
With confidence high in the camp of the visitors, it would be naive to write them off in this tie. However, while we are backing Pyunik to get on the scoresheet in Belgrade, Red Star are the clear favourites and should head into the reverse fixture in control.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 55.01%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for FC Pyunik had a probability of 20.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a FC Pyunik win it was 0-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Red Star Belgrade would win this match.
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