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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 71%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 11.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.14%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Leicester City | Draw | Birmingham City |
71% ( 0.58) | 17.28% ( -0.23) | 11.72% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 51.42% ( -0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.75% ( 0.17) | 38.25% ( -0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.47% ( 0.18) | 60.53% ( -0.18) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.43% ( 0.18) | 9.57% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.98% ( 0.42) | 32.02% ( -0.42) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.86% ( -0.47) | 43.14% ( 0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.59% ( -0.4) | 79.41% ( 0.4) |
Score Analysis |
Leicester City | Draw | Birmingham City |
2-0 @ 11.36% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 9.69% ( 0) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 2.45% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0) 6-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.97% Total : 70.99% | 1-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.07) Other @ 1% Total : 17.28% | 0-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.28% Total : 11.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 60 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 58 |
3 | Burnley | 29 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 57 |
4 | Sunderland | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 55 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 29 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 44 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 44 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 42 |
8 | Bristol City | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 41 |
9 | Watford | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 41 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 41 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 39 |
12 | Coventry CityCoventry | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 38 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 38 |
14 | Millwall | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 37 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 37 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
17 | Swansea CitySwansea | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 34 |
18 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 31 |
19 | Hull City | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 29 |
21 | Portsmouth | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 29 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 27 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 29 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 22 |
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