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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Rotherham United had a probability of 27.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.93%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%), while for a Rotherham United win it was 0-1 (9.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Rotherham United |
45.39% ( -2.68) | 27.6% ( 0.06) | 27.01% ( 2.62) |
Both teams to score 45.98% ( 1.86) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.88% ( 1.34) | 59.12% ( -1.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.44% ( 1.02) | 79.56% ( -1.02) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74% ( -0.71) | 26% ( 0.71) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.97% ( -0.97) | 61.03% ( 0.97) |
Rotherham United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.14% ( 3.08) | 37.86% ( -3.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.36% ( 2.87) | 74.63% ( -2.87) |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Rotherham United |
1-0 @ 13.26% ( -0.97) 2-0 @ 8.93% ( -0.85) 2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.47) 3-1 @ 3.9% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.07% Total : 45.39% | 1-1 @ 12.87% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 9.85% ( -0.5) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.31) Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.59% | 0-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( 0.58) 0-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.51) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.34) 0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.27) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.2) Other @ 1.66% Total : 27.01% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 56 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 55 |
3 | Burnley | 27 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 53 |
4 | Sunderland | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 51 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 42 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 27 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 41 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 41 |
8 | Watford | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 41 |
9 | Bristol City | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 36 |
12 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 35 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 34 |
14 | Coventry CityCoventry | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 32 |
15 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 27 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 31 |
17 | Millwall | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 30 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Derby CountyDerby | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 27 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 27 |
21 | Hull City | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 26 |
22 | Portsmouth | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 26 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 21 |
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