Copa Sudamericana | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 27, 2023 at 1.30am UK
Arena Corinthians
Corinthians1 - 1Fortaleza
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Corinthians 1-0 Botafogo
Saturday, September 23 at 12am in Brasileiro
Saturday, September 23 at 12am in Brasileiro
We said: Corinthians 1-1 Fortaleza
While the visitors did grab a 2-1 win over this opponent a couple of weeks ago, Timao are a difficult side to beat at the Neo Quimica Arena, where they sport an 11-match unbeaten streak. Neither side will want to be behind heading into the second leg, and we feel they will likely end up settling for a share of the spoils. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 46.02%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Corinthians | Draw | Fortaleza |
46.02% ( -0.01) | 27.08% ( -0) | 26.9% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.35% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
