Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 46.75%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 26.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
