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Forest Green Rovers
FA Cup | First Round Replays
Nov 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The New Lawn

Forest Green
5 - 2
Scarborough Ath

Jenks (5'), McAllister (18' pen.), Robson (30'), Bunker (35'), Omotoye (76')
Dabo (15')
FT(HT: 4-1)
Wiles (41'), Coulson (89')
Weledji (75'), Durose (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Forest Green Rovers and Scarborough Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Alfreton 1-3 Scarborough Ath
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League North

We said: Forest Green Rovers 1-0 Scarborough Athletic

Scarborough Athletic are more than capable of picking up a win on Tuesday evening, and we are expecting a very close match. Forest Green should have enough quality to edge the game, though, and we are backing the League Two side to advance to the second round of the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 61.77%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Scarborough Athletic had a probability of 18.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.59%) and 1-0 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Scarborough Athletic win it was 1-2 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Forest Green Rovers would win this match.

Result
Forest Green RoversDrawScarborough Athletic
61.77% (2.411 2.41) 19.7% (-0.642 -0.64) 18.53% (-1.766 -1.77)
Both teams to score 60.51% (-0.87 -0.87)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.09% (0.3 0.3)34.91% (-0.298 -0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.11% (0.337 0.34)56.89% (-0.333 -0.33)
Forest Green Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.08% (0.73 0.73)10.92% (-0.728 -0.73)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.9% (1.594 1.59)35.1% (-1.59 -1.59)
Scarborough Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.93% (-1.546 -1.55)32.07% (1.549 1.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.46% (-1.797 -1.8)68.55% (1.8 1.8)
Score Analysis
    Forest Green Rovers 61.77%
    Scarborough Athletic 18.53%
    Draw 19.7%
Forest Green RoversDrawScarborough Athletic
2-1 @ 9.77% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.59% (0.37 0.37)
1-0 @ 7.76% (0.111 0.11)
3-1 @ 7.21% (0.221 0.22)
3-0 @ 6.34% (0.451 0.45)
3-2 @ 4.1% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-1 @ 3.99% (0.235 0.24)
4-0 @ 3.51% (0.345 0.35)
4-2 @ 2.27% (0.041 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.77% (0.152 0.15)
5-0 @ 1.56% (0.193 0.19)
5-2 @ 1.01% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 3.91%
Total : 61.77%
1-1 @ 8.82% (-0.251 -0.25)
2-2 @ 5.55% (-0.233 -0.23)
0-0 @ 3.5% (-0.053 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.55% (-0.086 -0.09)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 19.7%
1-2 @ 5.01% (-0.368 -0.37)
0-1 @ 3.98% (-0.236 -0.24)
0-2 @ 2.26% (-0.239 -0.24)
2-3 @ 2.11% (-0.183 -0.18)
1-3 @ 1.9% (-0.228 -0.23)
Other @ 3.27%
Total : 18.53%

How you voted: Forest Green vs Scarborough Ath

Forest Green Rovers
68.0%
Draw
16.0%
Scarborough Athletic
16.0%
25
Head to Head
Nov 4, 2023 3pm
First Round
Scarborough Ath
1-1
Forest Green
Wiles (27')
Sully (90+3')
rhs 2.0
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