The bottom two teams in Serie A will battle it out for a place in the third round of the Coppa Italia on Tuesday as Genoa host Salertiana from Luigi Ferraris Stadium.
Il Grifone erased a 2-0 deficit in the opening round of this competition, scoring late in the second half to eliminate Perugia 3-2, while the team from Salerno blanked Reggina 2-0.
Match preview
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In the past 14 seasons, Genoa have been competing in the top flight of Italian football, escaping relegation multiple times, and after 17 games in 2021-22, they may need to do it again to survive in Serie A, with only 10 points so far, and second from the bottom.
Seeing them near the bottom of the table is a familiar feeling for this club, who have been a lot more successful in this competition of late than in the league, making it to the round of 16 of the Coppa Italia in back-to-back campaigns, falling on penalties both times to Torino in 2019-20 and then a season ago losing 3-2 in extra time to the eventual champions, Juventus.
The club have made sweeping changes off the field to try and get this group back on track, with the US-based private investment firm 777 Partners purchasing the club in September and bringing in an icon in this league from years ago in former AC Milan striker Andriy Shevchenko.
This will be the Ukrainian's first match on the sidelines in this competition, and so far in the league, the 2004 Ballon d'Or winner has not made much of an impact on this group, losing all five of his games in charge, including a 3-1 defeat to Sampdoria on Friday.
Shevchenko comes here with no ideas and a fresh look, but in the early stages of his tenure with his new club, they are still struggling to shake their old habits, namely starting slowly, going behind within the opening 10 minutes of their previous three encounters, which is what happened to them in their last Coppa Italia game when they were down by two after 10 minutes of play.
Since he took over, Genoa have been playing with three at the back while overloading the midfield, a formation that has been difficult for them to master as their strikers have struggled to close down the angles of opposing defenders, while their chemistry and ability to win those 50/50 balls has been lacking.
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The return to the top flight for I Granata has been filled with plenty of bumps and rarely a smooth ride, sitting bottom of the table with only eight points.
Even though they rarely touched the ball in their first-round fixtures versus Serie B side Reggina, with only 34% possession, they were sharp out wide and in transition, enabling them to advance to this point of the competition.
They have not had much to be optimistic about in their first season back in Serie A, but they have won their share of matches in the Coppa Italia, having made it to at least the third round over their previous six campaigns.
Stefano Colantuono initially saw his new play well in his first two matches in charge, defeating Venezia in his second match at the helm and then narrowly losing 1-0 to Napoli, but since November, things have only gone downhill for him and his club, losers of five of their last six Serie A fixtures, failing to score in each of those defeats.
Like their opponents on Tuesday, they usually find themselves having to chase a result going into halftime, only scoring the opening goal in a match three times domestically, although one of those came in a 1-0 win over Genoa, their first victory in Serie A this year.
With the fewest goals scored in the league so far (11) along with conceding the most (37), it is easy to see why they are dead last at the moment, which has to be disappointing to a club who signed over 20 players over the summer.
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Team News
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Genoa will be without Francesco Cassata, who underwent knee surgery in August, Mohamed Fares has a muscle injury, Nikola Maksimovic has a groin strain, Felipe Caicedo is suffering from muscular problems and Nicolo Rovella continues to recover from a muscle issue.
Mattia Destro scored the only goal on Friday as he leads the team with seven, putting him in a tie for sixth in league play along with Mario Pasalic and Domenico Berardi.
Goals from Domenico Criscito, an own goal from Perugia keeper Leandro Chichizola and a late strike from Yayah Kallon helped propel the oldest football team in Italy to a dramatic come from behind victory.
Federico Bonazzoli is the leading goalscorer at this competition early on, with the Salernitana striker notching a brace in their first-round victory, while Vid Belec stopped all six shots that were fired his way to collect a clean sheet.
Veteran French midfielder Frank Ribery has been their leading creative player, as the 2006 World Cup runner-up has two assists domestically but has not been involved in any of their goals in this competition, as Wajdi Kechrida and Matteo Ruggeri were the providers for both of their goals versus Reggina.
This team have incurred several injuries this season as Ruggeri is out with a muscle problem, Mamadou Coulibaly, Antonio Russo and Cedric Gondo have unknown injuries, Stefan Strandberg is nursing an adductor problem, Nadir Zortea has a muscular issue and Milan Duric is in quarantine due to health and safety protocols.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Marchetti; Vasquez, Bani, Criscito; Ghiglione, Sturaro, Badelj, Destro, Cambiaso; Pandev, Ekuban
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Belec; Ranieri, Bogdan, Gyomber, Jaroszynski; L. Coulibaly, Di Tacchio, Kastanos, Kechrida; Ribery; Simy
We say: Genoa 1-1 Salernitana (Salernitana wins on penalties)
Neither team have been particularly sharp in Serie A, however, I Granata have one more win domestically, and they are not under the same kind of pressure that Genoa have, so we expect that the longer this game remains tied, the more it favours the visitors, who have veteran players like Ribery who should provide a calming influence in this pressure situation.
Genoa have yet to win a game at home in Serie A this season, and this group are still struggling to find their bearings under a new boss with a new system.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salernitana win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 36.18% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salernitana win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
