Inter Milan square off against Fiorentina on Wednesday evening aware that they require three points to retain hope of mounting a late bid for the Serie A title.
Fiorentina make the trip to San Siro having put together a five-match unbeaten streak, which has included three wins and two draws.
Match preview
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While Inter remain favourites to claim second position come the end of the season, Antonio Conte will be frustrated that his side have not been more consistent since the resumption.
Inter have dropped as many as nine points, seven of which have come against clubs outside of the top seven in the table.
As it stands, that could prove to be the difference between a first Serie A crown in a decade and finishing as runners-up to Juventus, at a time when the long-term dominant side in the division have been well below their best.
The positives will be taken from claiming a late point at Roma at the weekend, but there has been an acknowledgement that it was not enough at this stage of the season.
With the likes of Napoli and Atalanta BC still to come, Conte will stress to his players that they cannot afford any more slip-ups if they wish to end the season in the top two.
Given the form of Fiorentina, there should be no complacency when Viola take to the pitch at San Siro on Wednesday evening.
Despite remaining in 12th position in the standings, Fiorentina have recorded 11 points from a possible 15, all against opponents placed ninth or below.
Although that will naturally be taken into consideration ahead of this contest, Giuseppe Iachini will relish the opportunity for his in-form side to test themselves in this situation.
Patrick Cutrone, officially still on loan from Wolverhampton Wanderers and formerly of AC Milan, has netted in his last three matches.
Inter Milan Serie A form: WLDWWD
Fiorentina Serie A form: LWDDWW
Team News
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After playing the final quarter of the meeting with Roma, Romelu Lukaku is likely to be handed a recall to the starting lineup.
The Belgian may take the spot of Lautaro Martinez, while Christian Eriksen could come back into the team as a replacement for Nicolo Barella.
Victor Moses is also an option in one of the wing-back positions should Conte turn to fresh legs in that area of the pitch.
Cutrone could be provided with an opportunity in the Fiorentina XI, potentially as a replacement for Christian Kouame.
With Iachini's system matching up well with Conte's, that could represent the sole alteration to the team which began the win over Torino.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Candreva, Brozovic, Gagliadini, Young; Eriksen; Sanchez, Lukaku
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terraciano; Milenkovic, Pezella, Caceres; Chiesa, Ghezzal, Pulgar, Castrovilli; Lirola; Ribery, Cutrone
We say: Inter Milan 2-1 Fiorentina
Taking Inter's inconsistency into account, we expect Fiorentina to play with a confidence which suggests that they have total belief in gaining a result on Wednesday night. However, motivated to remain in the title hunt, Inter could snatch all three points during the closing stages.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 19.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 1-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 1-2 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
