Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 48.57%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 24.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.83%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Kyrgyzstan win it was 1-0 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.