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League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 42
Apr 1, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Lincoln City

Carlisle
1 - 3
Lincoln

Lavelle (80')
Barclay (85'), Emmanuel (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
House (10'), Taylor (53'), Bishop (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Peterborough 1-3 Carlisle
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

Lincoln City

All competitions
Last Game: Lincoln 1-0 Leyton Orient
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-3 Lincoln City

 Carlisle would have taken confidence from Friday's away performance, but we think that they will struggle to produce another winning display on Monday. With Lincoln proving to be a tough team to stop, we believe that the visitors will have enough firepower to collect all three points at Brunton Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 53.64%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Lincoln City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lincoln City.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawLincoln City
22.4% (0.056000000000001 0.06) 23.96% (0.030999999999999 0.03) 53.64% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09)
Both teams to score 52.13% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.12% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)48.87% (0.067999999999998 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.03% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)70.96% (0.059999999999988 0.06)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.69% (0.012 0.01)36.31% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.9% (0.012 0.01)73.09% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.85% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)18.14% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.89% (-0.104 -0.1)49.11% (0.101 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 22.4%
    Lincoln City 53.64%
    Draw 23.96%
Carlisle UnitedDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 6.67% (0.021 0.02)
2-1 @ 5.77% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 3.38% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.95% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.66%
3-0 @ 1.14% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.82%
Total : 22.4%
1-1 @ 11.39% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.59% (0.019 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.93% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 23.96%
0-1 @ 11.24% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.72% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.53% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-3 @ 5.46% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.8% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.36% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.33% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.2% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 53.64%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Lincoln

Carlisle United
13.8%
Draw
10.3%
Lincoln City
75.9%
29
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 8
Lincoln
1-1
Carlisle
Hamilton (49')
Duffy (76')
Plange (19')
Plange (59'), Garner (72'), Mellish (76'), Lavelle (83'), Moxon (89')
Nov 30, 2021 7pm
Second Round
Carlisle
1-1
Lincoln
 Carlisle win 4-3 on penalties
Armer (69')
Mellish (55'), Guy (90+2')
Maguire (45')
Adelakun (55'), Maguire (85'), McGrandles (90+1')
Apr 19, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 43
Carlisle
1-0
Lincoln
Jones (76')
Gerrard (21'), Thomas (67'), Kennedy (83'), Liddle (96')

Shackell (26'), Bolger (34'), Bostwick (87')
Shackell (30')
Dec 1, 2018 3pm
Second Round
Lincoln
2-0
Carlisle
Rhead (1'), Akinde (86')
Oct 23, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Lincoln
2-2
Carlisle
O'Connor (13'), Andrade (44')
Nadesan (6', 27')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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