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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 53.64%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Lincoln City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lincoln City.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Lincoln City |
22.4% ( 0.06) | 23.96% ( 0.03) | 53.64% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 52.13% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.12% ( -0.07) | 48.87% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.03% ( -0.07) | 70.96% ( 0.06) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.69% ( 0.01) | 36.31% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.9% ( 0.01) | 73.09% ( -0.02) |
Lincoln City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.85% ( -0.06) | 18.14% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.89% ( -0.1) | 49.11% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Lincoln City |
1-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.66% 3-0 @ 1.14% ( 0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 22.4% | 1-1 @ 11.39% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.96% | 0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.6% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.53% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 5.46% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.36% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.4% Total : 53.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 17 | 25 | 56 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 54 |
3 | Wrexham | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 51 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 48 |
5 | Barnsley | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 42 |
6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40 | 28 | 12 | 41 |
7 | Reading | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 41 |
8 | Leyton Orient | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 38 |
9 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 38 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 37 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 35 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 34 |
13 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 34 |
14 | Blackpool | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 31 |
15 | Stevenage | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 31 |
16 | Exeter CityExeter | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 31 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 30 |
18 | Bristol Rovers | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 28 |
19 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 26 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 26 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 21 |
22 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 20 |
23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 18 |
24 | Burton Albion | 25 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 15 |
> League One Full Table |