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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 53.64%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Lincoln City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lincoln City.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Lincoln City |
22.4% ( 0.06) | 23.96% ( 0.03) | 53.64% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 52.13% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.12% ( -0.07) | 48.87% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.03% ( -0.07) | 70.96% ( 0.06) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.69% ( 0.01) | 36.31% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.9% ( 0.01) | 73.09% ( -0.02) |
Lincoln City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.85% ( -0.06) | 18.14% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.89% ( -0.1) | 49.11% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Lincoln City |
1-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.66% 3-0 @ 1.14% ( 0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 22.4% | 1-1 @ 11.39% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.96% | 0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.6% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.53% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 5.46% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.36% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.4% Total : 53.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 26 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 44 | 18 | 26 | 60 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 58 |
3 | Wrexham | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 17 | 52 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 23 | 16 | 48 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 28 | 15 | 47 |
6 | Leyton Orient | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 44 |
7 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 44 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 26 | 8 | 43 |
9 | Barnsley | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 42 |
10 | Reading | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 41 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 38 |
12 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 37 |
13 | Blackpool | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 37 |
14 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 37 |
15 | Stevenage | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 37 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 33 |
17 | Exeter CityExeter | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 32 |
18 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 30 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 27 |
21 | Burton Albion | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 24 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 24 |
23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 21 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 47 | -21 | 20 |
> League One Full Table |