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Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 36
Mar 2, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Reading logo

Carlisle
1 - 3
Reading

Mellish (71')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Smith (17'), Knibbs (36', 57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Reading 2-3 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Reading

Although Carlisle claimed all three points in Tuesday's away clash with Burton, they have lost each of their last four home matches, and after falling to a 5-1 defeat to Reading in the reverse fixture, we think that the Cumbrians will come up short in Saturday's home outing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawReading
31.67% (0.067 0.07) 25.52% (0.026999999999997 0.03) 42.8% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 54.75% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.97% (-0.089000000000006 -0.09)49.03% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.89% (-0.080000000000002 -0.08)71.11% (0.081999999999994 0.08)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.93% (0.0010000000000048 0)29.07%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.02% (0.0020000000000024 0)64.98%
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.19% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)22.81% (0.086000000000002 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.48% (-0.124 -0.12)56.51% (0.125 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 31.67%
    Reading 42.8%
    Draw 25.52%
Carlisle UnitedDrawReading
1-0 @ 8.19% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.48% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.06% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.28% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-0 @ 2.08% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 31.67%
1-1 @ 12.1% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.63% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0039999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.52%
0-1 @ 9.8% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.95% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.41% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.57% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.72% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.63% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.32% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.01% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 42.8%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Reading

Carlisle United
0.0%
Draw
30.0%
Reading
70.0%
10
Head to Head
Nov 28, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 20
Reading
5-1
Carlisle
Lavelle (26' og.), Knibbs (32', 39'), Wing (78'), Azeez (83')
Dorsett (53')
Plange (29')
Armer (33')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120


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