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League One | Gameweek 41
Apr 10, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
MK Dons

Derby
1 - 1
MK Dons

McGoldrick (17')
Rooney (70'), Roberts (84')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Lawrence (68')
Maghoma (24'), Watson (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and MK Dons, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Forest Green 0-2 Derby
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One

MK Dons

All competitions
Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Portsmouth
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 MK Dons

 Even though the Dons have been the more consistent side over the past few weeks, we believe Derby are well-suited to beat the visitors because they are sharp on set pieces, aerial duels and attacking down the wings, all things that MK have had trouble dealing with all season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 16.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawMK Dons
62.81% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 21.05% (0.0030000000000001 0) 16.13% (0.023999999999997 0.02)
Both teams to score 50.64% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.53% (0.027000000000001 0.03)45.46% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.2% (0.027000000000001 0.03)67.8% (-0.021999999999991 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.14% (0.0049999999999955 0)13.86%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.75% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)41.25% (0.0010000000000048 0)
MK Dons Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.79% (0.047999999999995 0.05)41.21% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.26% (0.039999999999999 0.04)77.74% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 62.8%
    MK Dons 16.13%
    Draw 21.05%
Derby CountyDrawMK Dons
1-0 @ 11.28% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 11.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 7.35% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.51% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 3.63% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 3.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.89% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.44% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.43% (0.002 0)
5-1 @ 1.27%
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 62.8%
1-1 @ 10%
0-0 @ 5.71% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.38% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 21.05%
0-1 @ 5.06% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 4.44% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.24% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.31% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.3% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 16.13%

How you voted: Derby vs MK Dons

Derby County
66.7%
Draw
13.3%
MK Dons
20.0%
15
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2022 3pm
MK Dons
1-3
Derby
Barry (41')
Roberts (43'), Collins (53'), Mendez-Laing (79')
Mendez-Laing (39')
Feb 13, 2016 3pm
Derby
0-1
MK Dons

Johnson (39'), Hendrick (72')
Forster-Caskey (82')
Maynard (45'), Carruthers (46')
Sep 26, 2015 12.30pm
MK Dons
1-3
Derby
> Match Report
Mar 4, 2000 3pm
Derby
4-0
MK Dons
Kinkladze (65'), Christie (71'), Burton (89'), Sturridge (90')
Sep 11, 1999 3pm
MK Dons
2-2
Derby
Euell (63'), Hartson (62')
Carbonari (14'), Johnson (81')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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