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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
19.84% ( 0.18) | 23% ( -0.07) | 57.16% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 51.48% ( 0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.08% ( 0.55) | 47.93% ( -0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.9% ( 0.51) | 70.1% ( -0.5) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.67% ( 0.52) | 38.33% ( -0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.91% ( 0.49) | 75.09% ( -0.49) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.48% ( 0.16) | 16.53% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.73% ( 0.29) | 46.27% ( -0.28) |
Score Analysis |
Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.5% Total : 19.84% | 1-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.99% | 0-1 @ 11.4% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 10.26% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 9.84% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 6.16% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.91% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 2.77% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.66% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 1% ( 0) 1-5 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.09% Total : 57.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 17 | 25 | 56 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 54 |
3 | Wrexham | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 51 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 48 |
5 | Barnsley | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 42 |
6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40 | 28 | 12 | 41 |
7 | Reading | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 41 |
8 | Leyton Orient | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 38 |
9 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 38 |
10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 37 |
11 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 37 |
12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 35 |
13 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 34 |
14 | Exeter CityExeter | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 32 |
15 | Blackpool | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 31 |
16 | Stevenage | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 31 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 30 |
18 | Bristol Rovers | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 28 |
19 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 27 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 26 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 21 |
22 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 20 |
23 | Burton Albion | 26 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 18 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 18 |
> League One Full Table |