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League One | Gameweek 34
Feb 17, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Stevenage

Derby
1 - 0
Stevenage

Sibley (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Exeter 0-3 Derby
Tuesday, February 13 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 2-3 Bristol Rovers
Tuesday, February 13 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Stevenage

Derby flexed their attacking power in the win at Exeter on Tuesday night, and we believe that it could be a similar tale at Pride Park this weekend. Stevenage's confidence would have taken a massive hit after wasting a two-goal lead last time out, with Pride Park not a likely place for the Boro to get back to winning ways. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 55.95%. A draw has a probability of 23.7% and a win for Stevenage has a probability of 20.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Stevenage win it is 0-1 (6.5%).

Result
Derby CountyDrawStevenage
55.95% (0.425 0.42) 23.68% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09) 20.38% (-0.33 -0.33)
Both teams to score 50.21% (-0.214 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.98% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)50.02% (0.032000000000004 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28% (-0.026 -0.03)72% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.29% (0.146 0.15)17.71% (-0.144 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.63% (0.249 0.25)48.37% (-0.247 -0.25)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.03% (-0.365 -0.37)38.98% (0.368 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.3% (-0.344 -0.34)75.7% (0.34699999999999 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 55.94%
    Stevenage 20.38%
    Draw 23.67%
Derby CountyDrawStevenage
1-0 @ 11.94% (0.07 0.07)
2-0 @ 10.34% (0.11 0.11)
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.97% (0.092 0.09)
3-1 @ 5.62% (0.03 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.65% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.58% (0.052 0.05)
4-1 @ 2.43% (0.025 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.15%
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 55.94%
1-1 @ 11.25% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.9% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.59% (-0.042 -0.04)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 23.67%
0-1 @ 6.5% (-0.057 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.31% (-0.074 -0.07)
0-2 @ 3.07% (-0.057 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.67% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-3 @ 0.96% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 1.43%
Total : 20.38%

How you voted: Derby vs Stevenage

Derby County
69.2%
Draw
23.1%
Stevenage
7.7%
13
Head to Head
Oct 28, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 16
Stevenage
3-1
Derby
Roberts (32'), MacDonald (45+2'), Hemmings (84')
Reid (59'), Piergianni (71')
Mendez-Laing (38')
Cashin (11'), Forsyth (30')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham21126331141742
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Lincoln CityLincoln218762825331
7Reading209473030031
8Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
9Barnsley218672930-130
10Mansfield TownMansfield198472322128
11Charlton AthleticCharlton207672319427
12Blackpool207672931-227
13Exeter CityExeter208391922-327
14Stevenage197571517-226
15Leyton Orient207492320325
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
17Wigan AthleticWigan206681918124
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham196581921-223
19Bristol Rovers2064101829-1122
20Northampton TownNorthampton2156102134-1321
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion2026121732-1512
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2033142141-2012


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