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League One | Gameweek 34
Feb 17, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Stevenage

Derby
1 - 0
Stevenage

Sibley (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Exeter 0-3 Derby
Tuesday, February 13 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 2-3 Bristol Rovers
Tuesday, February 13 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Stevenage

Derby flexed their attacking power in the win at Exeter on Tuesday night, and we believe that it could be a similar tale at Pride Park this weekend. Stevenage's confidence would have taken a massive hit after wasting a two-goal lead last time out, with Pride Park not a likely place for the Boro to get back to winning ways. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 55.95%. A draw has a probability of 23.7% and a win for Stevenage has a probability of 20.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Stevenage win it is 0-1 (6.5%).

Result
Derby CountyDrawStevenage
55.95% (0.425 0.42) 23.68% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09) 20.38% (-0.33 -0.33)
Both teams to score 50.21% (-0.214 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.98% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)50.02% (0.032000000000004 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28% (-0.026 -0.03)72% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.29% (0.146 0.15)17.71% (-0.144 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.63% (0.249 0.25)48.37% (-0.247 -0.25)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.03% (-0.365 -0.37)38.98% (0.368 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.3% (-0.344 -0.34)75.7% (0.34699999999999 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 55.94%
    Stevenage 20.38%
    Draw 23.67%
Derby CountyDrawStevenage
1-0 @ 11.94% (0.07 0.07)
2-0 @ 10.34% (0.11 0.11)
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.97% (0.092 0.09)
3-1 @ 5.62% (0.03 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.65% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.58% (0.052 0.05)
4-1 @ 2.43% (0.025 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.15%
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 55.94%
1-1 @ 11.25% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.9% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.59% (-0.042 -0.04)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 23.67%
0-1 @ 6.5% (-0.057 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.31% (-0.074 -0.07)
0-2 @ 3.07% (-0.057 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.67% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-3 @ 0.96% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 1.43%
Total : 20.38%

How you voted: Derby vs Stevenage

Derby County
69.2%
Draw
23.1%
Stevenage
7.7%
13
Head to Head
Oct 28, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 16
Stevenage
3-1
Derby
Roberts (32'), MacDonald (45+2'), Hemmings (84')
Reid (59'), Piergianni (71')
Mendez-Laing (38')
Cashin (11'), Forsyth (30')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham27196246192763
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe29178455302559
3Wrexham29167643251855
4Stockport CountyStockport29148744281650
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield28146841261548
6Leyton Orient281351040251544
7Charlton AthleticCharlton2812883628844
8Reading28135104341244
9Bolton WanderersBolton29135114343044
10Barnsley29127104139243
11Stevenage2711792725240
12Lincoln CityLincoln29109103534139
13Blackpool2891184140138
14Mansfield TownMansfield27114123534137
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham28107113333037
16Wigan AthleticWigan2897122728-134
17Exeter CityExeter2995153346-1332
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Northampton TownNorthampton2979132845-1730
20Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
21Burton Albion29510143044-1425
22Crawley TownCrawley2766152748-2124
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2865172848-2023
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2857162950-2122


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