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Lincoln City
League One | Gameweek 29
Jan 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
LNER Stadium
Derby logo

Lincoln
0 - 0
Derby


Taylor (68'), Draper (68')
FT

Elder (18'), Wilson (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Lincoln City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wycombe 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in League One

We said: Lincoln City 1-2 Derby County

Derby have won each of their last five away trips, and we think that they will continue that run of form against a Lincoln side that has lost four of their previous five matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 17.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 1-0 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
17.08% (0.041 0.04) 22.59% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 60.33% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Both teams to score 47.84% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)50.24% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)72.19% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.12% (0.050999999999995 0.05)42.88% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.81% (0.042999999999999 0.04)79.19% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.75% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)16.24% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.23% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)45.77% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln City 17.08%
    Derby County 60.32%
    Draw 22.59%
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 5.9% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-1 @ 4.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.28% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.16% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 17.08%
1-1 @ 10.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 4.13% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 22.59%
0-1 @ 12.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 11.5% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 6.97% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.9% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-4 @ 3.17% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.68% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-5 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.14%
1-5 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 60.32%

How you voted: Lincoln vs Derby

Lincoln City
46.2%
Draw
7.7%
Derby County
46.2%
13
Head to Head
Dec 21, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Derby
3-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (26'), Wilson (65'), Collins (77')
Hourihane (84'), Collins (90+3')
Mandroiu (45+2' pen.)
Jackson (57'), Vale (85'), Erhahon (89')
Sep 19, 2023 7pm
Group Stage
Derby
2-0
Lincoln
Barkhuizen (51'), Sibley (77')
Fornah (4'), Elder (36')

Duffy (53')
Feb 14, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Derby
1-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (69')
Shodipo (43')
Sep 13, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Lincoln
2-0
Derby
Diamond (12' pen.), House (68')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham27196246192763
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe29178455302559
3Wrexham29167643251855
4Stockport CountyStockport29148744281650
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield28146841261548
6Leyton Orient281351040251544
7Charlton AthleticCharlton2812883628844
8Reading28135104341244
9Bolton WanderersBolton29135114343044
10Barnsley29127104139243
11Stevenage2711792725240
12Lincoln CityLincoln29109103534139
13Blackpool2891184140138
14Mansfield TownMansfield27114123534137
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham28107113333037
16Wigan AthleticWigan2897122728-134
17Exeter CityExeter2995153346-1332
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Northampton TownNorthampton2979132845-1730
20Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
21Burton Albion29510143044-1425
22Crawley TownCrawley2766152748-2124
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2865172848-2023
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2857162950-2122


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