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League One
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League One | Gameweek 30
Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cheltenham Town

Derby
2 - 1
Cheltenham

Bird (60'), Collins (81')
Wilson (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Sercombe (50')
Freestone (55'), Long (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Reading 1-0 Derby
Tuesday, January 23 at 8pm in League One

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bolton 1-0 Cheltenham
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Cheltenham Town

 Keen to bounce back to winning ways against a resilient Cheltenham Town side who are fighting for their third-tier status, Derby County face a difficult test on Saturday but should have the quality to come out on top at Pride Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 72.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
72.25% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03) 16.93% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 10.82% (0.016 0.02)
Both teams to score 49.5% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.86% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)39.13% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.53% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)61.46% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.5% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)9.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.14% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)31.86% (0.022000000000002 0.02)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.69% (0.022000000000006 0.02)45.31% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.82% (0.016000000000002 0.02)81.18% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 72.24%
    Cheltenham Town 10.82%
    Draw 16.93%
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
2-0 @ 11.92%
1-0 @ 10.13%
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.0019999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 9.36% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.41% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 5.51% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.36% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.93% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 2.59% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 2.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.73%
6-0 @ 1.02% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.8%
Total : 72.24%
1-1 @ 8.02% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-2 @ 3.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 16.93%
0-1 @ 3.41% (0.004 0)
1-2 @ 3.18% (0.004 0)
0-2 @ 1.35% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 10.82%

Head to Head
Oct 7, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 12
Cheltenham
1-1
Derby
Street (39')
Bradbury (70')
Nelson (45+7')
Feb 28, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
2-0
Cheltenham
McGoldrick (43'), Dobbin (67')
> Preview
Jan 14, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 27
Cheltenham
2-3
Derby
Taylor (2'), May (77')
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Browns
32-41
Broncos
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe16122236181838
2Wrexham17104326111534
3Birmingham CityBirmingham15103228151333
4Stockport CountyStockport1786329171230
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield1692525151029
6Barnsley177642622427
7Reading168352624227
8Bolton WanderersBolton168352526-127
9Lincoln CityLincoln177552321226
10Mansfield TownMansfield157352017324
11Exeter CityExeter167271415-123
12Charlton AthleticCharlton166461717022
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough166373229321
14Bristol Rovers176381723-621
15Wigan AthleticWigan165561513220
16Blackpool175572430-620
17Stevenage165471116-519
18Northampton TownNorthampton174671923-418
19Rotherham UnitedRotherham164571419-517
20Crawley TownCrawley174491527-1216
21Leyton Orient164391420-615
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge163491425-1113
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1632111629-1311
24Burton Albion1615101529-148
> League One Full Table


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