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League One
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League One | Gameweek 30
Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cheltenham Town

Derby
2 - 1
Cheltenham

Bird (60'), Collins (81')
Wilson (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Sercombe (50')
Freestone (55'), Long (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Reading 1-0 Derby
Tuesday, January 23 at 8pm in League One

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bolton 1-0 Cheltenham
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Cheltenham Town

 Keen to bounce back to winning ways against a resilient Cheltenham Town side who are fighting for their third-tier status, Derby County face a difficult test on Saturday but should have the quality to come out on top at Pride Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 72.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
72.25% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03) 16.93% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 10.82% (0.016 0.02)
Both teams to score 49.5% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.86% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)39.13% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.53% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)61.46% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.5% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)9.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.14% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)31.86% (0.022000000000002 0.02)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.69% (0.022000000000006 0.02)45.31% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.82% (0.016000000000002 0.02)81.18% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 72.24%
    Cheltenham Town 10.82%
    Draw 16.93%
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
2-0 @ 11.92%
1-0 @ 10.13%
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.0019999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 9.36% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.41% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 5.51% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.36% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.93% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 2.59% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 2.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.73%
6-0 @ 1.02% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.8%
Total : 72.24%
1-1 @ 8.02% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-2 @ 3.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 16.93%
0-1 @ 3.41% (0.004 0)
1-2 @ 3.18% (0.004 0)
0-2 @ 1.35% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 10.82%

Head to Head
Oct 7, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 12
Cheltenham
1-1
Derby
Street (39')
Bradbury (70')
Nelson (45+7')
Feb 28, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
2-0
Cheltenham
McGoldrick (43'), Dobbin (67')
> Preview
Jan 14, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 27
Cheltenham
2-3
Derby
Taylor (2'), May (77')
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe1282226161026
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport135622012821
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
22Crawley TownCrawley133191225-1310
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion120481325-124
> League One Full Table


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