Carlisle

3 - 1

Morecambe

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.