Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.09%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.