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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 40.07%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | Grimsby Town |
33.1% ( -0.09) | 26.83% ( 0.07) | 40.07% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 51.04% ( -0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.98% ( -0.3) | 54.02% ( 0.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.54% ( -0.25) | 75.45% ( 0.25) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.38% ( -0.21) | 30.62% ( 0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.14% ( -0.25) | 66.85% ( 0.25) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.56% ( -0.13) | 26.43% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.39% ( -0.17) | 61.6% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | Grimsby Town |
1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 7.54% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 5.67% 3-1 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.11% Total : 33.1% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.82% | 0-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 8.48% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.16% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.18% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 40.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
3 | Port Vale | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
6 | Chesterfield | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 31 |
8 | MK Dons | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
9 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 28 |
11 | Notts County | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 28 |
12 | Salford City | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 27 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
14 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
15 | Bromley | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
16 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
17 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 19 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 16 |
23 | Morecambe | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 14 |
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