Serie A | Gameweek 5
Sep 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Lecce2 - 2Parma
We said: Lecce 1-2 Parma
Parma have conceded goals in each of their last 27 Serie A away games - the longest ongoing streak without a clean sheet on the road - and Lecce may take advantage of their naivety to extend that run. However, the Crociati have been pretty impressive since returning to Italy's top tier, and this time they can retain a lead and take three points back to Emilia-Romagna. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Parma had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lecce | Draw | Parma |
41.2% ( -0.76) | 26.35% ( 0.05) | 32.45% ( 0.72) |
| Both teams to score 52.35% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.74% ( 0.01) | 52.26% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.04% ( 0.01) | 73.96% ( -0.01) |
| Lecce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.96% ( -0.39) | 25.04% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.29% ( -0.54) | 59.71% ( 0.54) |
| Parma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.83% ( 0.49) | 30.17% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.68% ( 0.58) | 66.32% ( -0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
Lecce 41.19%
Parma 32.45%
Draw 26.35%
| Lecce | Draw | Parma |
| 1-0 @ 10.45% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 7.24% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.34% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.52% Total : 41.19% | 1-1 @ 12.53% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.35% | 0-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 3% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.22% Total : 32.45% |
How you voted: Lecce vs Parma
Lecce
29.9%Draw
24.3%Parma
45.8%107
