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Bundesliga | Gameweek 33
May 11, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
Dortmund logo

Mainz
3 - 0
Dortmund

Barreiro (12'), Jae-sung (19', 23')
Hanche-Olsen (45+1'), Barreiro (56')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Reus (41'), Schlotterbeck (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Heidenheim 1-1 Mainz
Sunday, May 5 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund have won each of their last six away games against Mainz, and even with a number of changes, we still think that the Champions League finalists will do enough to claim all three points in Saturday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.24%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
49.24% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01) 22.41% (0.0030000000000001 0) 28.34% (0.004999999999999 0)
Both teams to score 63.62% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.49% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)36.5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.35% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)58.65% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.82% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)15.17% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.21% (-0.012 -0.01)43.79% (0.012 0.01)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.01% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)24.99% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.36% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)59.64% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 49.24%
    Borussia Dortmund 28.34%
    Draw 22.41%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.35% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
1-0 @ 7.15% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-0 @ 6.74%
3-1 @ 5.88% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 4.24% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 2.77% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.92% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.04% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 4.09%
Total : 49.24%
1-1 @ 9.92% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-2 @ 6.48%
0-0 @ 3.79% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.88% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 22.41%
1-2 @ 6.88% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.26% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 3.65% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 3.18%
2-3 @ 3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.69% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.1%
2-4 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 28.34%

How you voted: Mainz vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
15.8%
Draw
11.9%
Borussia Dortmund
72.3%
101
Head to Head
Dec 19, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 16
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Brandt (29')
Van den Berg (43')
Bell (39'), Burkardt (85'), Krauss (90'), Barkok (90+2')
May 27, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 34
Dortmund
2-2
Mainz
Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern16123148133539
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen16105140231735
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1693436231330
4RB Leipzig169342822630
5Mainz 05Mainz1684430201028
6Freiburg168352426-227
7Stuttgart167543025526
8Borussia DortmundDortmund177463229325
9Werder Bremen167452829-125
10Wolfsburg167363328524
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach167362521424
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin164571421-717
13Augsburg164481733-1616
14St Pauli1642101220-814
15Hoffenheim163582029-914
16Heidenheim1641112033-1313
17Holstein Kiel1732122543-1811
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1613121337-246


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