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Bundesliga | Gameweek 16
Dec 19, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
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Dortmund
1 - 1
Mainz

Brandt (29')
FT(HT: 1-1)
van den Berg (43')
Bell (39'), Burkardt (85'), Krauss (90'), Barkok (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Augsburg 1-1 Dortmund
Saturday, December 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Mainz 05

 Ending a tumultuous year that has featured a painful title failure but more recently seen unexpected success in Europe, Borussia Dortmund should secure maximum points against goal-shy Mainz 05. Gaining a small slice of revenge for May's final-day failure, BVB can score at least once - and even their shaky defence can hold out against the Bundesliga's second-weakest attack. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
47.68% (1.489 1.49) 22.05% (0.106 0.11) 30.26% (-1.596 -1.6)
Both teams to score 66.4% (-1.355 -1.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.56% (-1.395 -1.4)33.44% (1.392 1.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.77% (-1.611 -1.61)55.22% (1.608 1.61)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.42% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)14.58% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.35% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)42.65% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.73% (-1.573 -1.57)22.26% (1.571 1.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.29% (-2.42 -2.42)55.7% (2.417 2.42)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 47.68%
    Mainz 05 30.26%
    Draw 22.05%
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.04% (0.228 0.23)
1-0 @ 6.25% (0.444 0.44)
2-0 @ 6.02% (0.425 0.43)
3-1 @ 5.8% (0.144 0.14)
3-2 @ 4.36% (-0.1 -0.1)
3-0 @ 3.86% (0.271 0.27)
4-1 @ 2.79% (0.068 0.07)
4-2 @ 2.1% (-0.049 -0.05)
4-0 @ 1.86% (0.129 0.13)
5-1 @ 1.08% (0.026 0.03)
4-3 @ 1.05% (-0.077 -0.08)
Other @ 3.48%
Total : 47.68%
1-1 @ 9.39% (0.241 0.24)
2-2 @ 6.79% (-0.151 -0.15)
0-0 @ 3.25% (0.232 0.23)
3-3 @ 2.18% (-0.158 -0.16)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 22.05%
1-2 @ 7.05% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-1 @ 4.88% (0.128 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.66% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-3 @ 3.53% (-0.253 -0.25)
2-3 @ 3.4% (-0.245 -0.25)
0-3 @ 1.83% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-4 @ 1.33% (-0.165 -0.17)
2-4 @ 1.28% (-0.159 -0.16)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 30.26%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Mainz

Borussia Dortmund
89.6%
Draw
8.7%
Mainz 05
1.7%
115
Head to Head
May 27, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 34
Dortmund
2-2
Mainz
Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')
> Preview
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Jae-sung (2')
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
> Preview
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
> Preview
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
> Preview
May 16, 2021 5pm
Gameweek 33
Mainz
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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