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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 25, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Coface Arena
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Mainz
1 - 2
Dortmund

Jae-sung (2')
Jae-sung (34'), Svensson (67'), Fernandes (76')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Stuttgart 1-1 Mainz
Saturday, January 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 4-3 Augsburg
Sunday, January 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

 Considering Mainz's home form and Dortmund's recent efforts on the road, a closely-fought contest could be on the cards on Wednesday. However, BVB will be regarded as favourites and they should have enough quality in their side to edge past the 05ers and claim their 10th Bundesliga victory of the campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 54.24%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
24.08% (-0.134 -0.13) 21.69% (-0.058 -0.06) 54.24% (0.195 0.2)
Both teams to score 61.98% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.16% (0.134 0.13)36.84% (-0.13 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.99% (0.147 0.15)59.01% (-0.142 -0.14)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.78% (-0.029999999999987 -0.03)28.22% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.08% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)63.92% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.34% (0.107 0.11)13.66% (-0.103 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.14% (0.21 0.21)40.86% (-0.206 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 24.08%
    Borussia Dortmund 54.24%
    Draw 21.69%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 6.14% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-0 @ 4.88% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-0 @ 3.09% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-1 @ 2.59% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.58% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 1.3% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.5%
Total : 24.08%
1-1 @ 9.71% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 6.11% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-0 @ 3.86% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.71% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.69%
1-2 @ 9.66% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 7.67% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.64% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 6.41% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 5.07% (0.025 0.03)
2-3 @ 4.06% (0.013 0.01)
1-4 @ 3.19% (0.026 0.03)
0-4 @ 2.52% (0.023 0.02)
2-4 @ 2.02% (0.014 0.01)
1-5 @ 1.27% (0.015 0.02)
0-5 @ 1% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 54.24%

How you voted: Mainz vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
12.4%
Draw
18.8%
Borussia Dortmund
68.8%
234
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
May 16, 2021 5pm
Mainz
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
Jan 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Meunier (73')
Can (68')
Oztunali (57')
Mwene (40'), Hack (47')
Jun 17, 2020 7.30pm
Dortmund
0-2
Mainz
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern20163162194351
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen20136149272245
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt20115445271838
4RB Leipzig209653429533
5Stuttgart209563730732
6Mainz 05Mainz209473324931
7Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach209383230230
8Werder Bremen208663436-230
9Freiburg209382736-930
10Wolfsburg208574335829
11Borussia DortmundDortmund208573634229
12Augsburg207582435-1126
13St Pauli2063111822-421
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin205691627-1121
15Hoffenheim2046102640-1418
16Heidenheim2042142542-1714
17Holstein Kiel2033143152-2112
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum2024141744-2710
> Bundesliga Full Table


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