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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 52.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 23.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Newport County win it was 1-0 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
23.77% ( -0.35) | 23.86% ( 0.06) | 52.37% ( 0.29) |
Both teams to score 54.13% ( -0.58) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.96% ( -0.58) | 47.04% ( 0.59) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.72% ( -0.54) | 69.29% ( 0.55) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.96% ( -0.62) | 34.04% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.28% ( -0.68) | 70.72% ( 0.68) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.06% ( -0.11) | 17.94% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.24% ( -0.18) | 48.76% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
1-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 3.55% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.22% Total : 23.77% | 1-1 @ 11.3% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.85% | 0-1 @ 10.49% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.01% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 5.56% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 5.16% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 2.39% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.53% Total : 52.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 58 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 49 |
3 | Notts County | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 47 |
4 | Bradford CityBradford | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 47 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 47 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 45 |
7 | Port Vale | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 45 |
8 | Salford City | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 43 |
9 | Chesterfield | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 31 | 12 | 39 |
10 | Grimsby Town | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 39 |
11 | MK Dons | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 38 |
12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 36 |
13 | Bromley | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 35 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 35 |
15 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
16 | Swindon TownSwindon | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 34 |
17 | Gillingham | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 32 |
18 | BarrowBarrow | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 31 |
19 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 29 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 29 |
21 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 27 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 26 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 21 |
24 | Morecambe | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
> League Two Full Table |