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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Heracles win was 0-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.
Result | ||
PEC Zwolle | Draw | Heracles |
49.1% ( -0.18) | 24.36% ( -0.1) | 26.53% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 55.28% ( 0.56) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.16% ( 0.63) | 46.84% ( -0.63) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.9% ( 0.58) | 69.1% ( -0.59) |
PEC Zwolle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.87% ( 0.17) | 19.13% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.23% ( 0.29) | 50.78% ( -0.29) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.36% ( 0.55) | 31.64% ( -0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.94% ( 0.63) | 68.06% ( -0.63) |
Score Analysis |
PEC Zwolle | Draw | Heracles |
1-0 @ 10.01% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 5.25% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.56% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.14% Total : 49.1% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.36% | 0-1 @ 6.97% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.75% Total : 26.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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