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Stuttgart
Bundesliga | Gameweek 32
May 4, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mercedes-Benz-Arena
Bayern logo

Stuttgart
3 - 1
Bayern

Stergiou (29'), Woo-yeong (83'), Wamangituka (90+3')
Anton (24')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Kane (37' pen.)
Dier (20'), Pavlovic (78'), Tuchel (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Stuttgart and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart
Saturday, April 27 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 2-2 Real Madrid
Tuesday, April 30 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Stuttgart 2-2 Bayern Munich

Goals are to be expected on Saturday, as not only do these two teams boast the top two scorers in the division, Kane (35) and Guirassy (25), but they are also the two sides with the highest expected goals (xG) and have created the most big chances in the division - Bayern with 142 chances compared with Stuttgart's 119. Both teams have little riding on this fixture, but Stuttgart still have some work to do to guarantee a third-placed finish, so with that in mind, we believe that the hosts will earn a hard-fought point from an entertaining score draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 46.89%. A win for Bayern Munich had a probability of 32.29% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.81%) and 3-2 (5.04%). The likeliest Bayern Munich win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
StuttgartDrawBayern Munich
46.89% (0.127 0.13) 20.83% (-0.313 -0.31) 32.29% (0.186 0.19)
Both teams to score 72.37% (1.342 1.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
73.82% (1.679 1.68)26.18% (-1.68 -1.68)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
53.55% (2.123 2.12)46.45% (-2.124 -2.12)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.86% (0.66600000000001 0.67)12.14% (-0.667 -0.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.26% (1.385 1.39)37.74% (-1.387 -1.39)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.37% (0.90900000000001 0.91)17.63% (-0.91 -0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.77% (1.555 1.56)48.23% (-1.555 -1.56)
Score Analysis
    Stuttgart 46.89%
    Bayern Munich 32.29%
    Draw 20.83%
StuttgartDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 8.26% (-0.192 -0.19)
3-1 @ 5.81% (0.015 0.01)
3-2 @ 5.04% (0.158 0.16)
2-0 @ 4.76% (-0.256 -0.26)
1-0 @ 4.51% (-0.366 -0.37)
3-0 @ 3.35% (-0.091 -0.09)
4-1 @ 3.06% (0.085 0.09)
4-2 @ 2.66% (0.149 0.15)
4-0 @ 1.76% (-0.002 -0)
4-3 @ 1.54% (0.128 0.13)
5-1 @ 1.29% (0.068 0.07)
5-2 @ 1.12% (0.089 0.09)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 46.89%
1-1 @ 7.83% (-0.39 -0.39)
2-2 @ 7.17% (0.045 0.04)
3-3 @ 2.91% (0.174 0.17)
0-0 @ 2.14% (-0.234 -0.23)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 20.83%
1-2 @ 6.8% (-0.132 -0.13)
2-3 @ 4.15% (0.146 0.15)
1-3 @ 3.93% (0.04 0.04)
0-1 @ 3.72% (-0.286 -0.29)
0-2 @ 3.22% (-0.148 -0.15)
0-3 @ 1.87% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-4 @ 1.8% (0.114 0.11)
1-4 @ 1.71% (0.066 0.07)
3-4 @ 1.26% (0.109 0.11)
Other @ 3.84%
Total : 32.29%

How you voted: Stuttgart vs Bayern

Stuttgart
Draw
Bayern Munich
Stuttgart
31.7%
Draw
23.8%
Bayern Munich
44.6%
101
Head to Head
Dec 17, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 15
Bayern
3-0
Stuttgart
Kane (2', 55'), Min-jae (63')

Mittelstadt (31'), Karazor (69'), Leweling (82')
Mar 4, 2023 5.30pm
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Bayern
2-2
Stuttgart
Tel (36'), Musiala (60')
Fuhrich (57'), Guirassy (90+2' pen.)
May 8, 2022 4.30pm
Gameweek 33
Bayern
2-2
Stuttgart
Gnabry (35'), Muller (44')
Kouassi (6'), Davies (90+1')
Coman (90+5')
Tomas (8'), Kalajdzic (52')
Karazor (39'), Fuhrich (50'), Coulibaly (74')
Dec 14, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 16
Stuttgart
0-5
Bayern

Karazor (64')
Gnabry (40', 53', 74'), Lewandowski (69', 72')
Davies (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226


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