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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 18
Jan 14, 2024 at 2pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Montpellier

Brest
2 - 0
Montpellier

Magnetti (48'), Le Douaron (90+2')
Magnetti (45')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Chotard (44'), Jullien (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 1-0 Angers
Saturday, January 6 at 2.30pm in Coupe de France

Montpellier HSC

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Amiens 1-2 Montpellier
Saturday, January 6 at 5pm in Coupe de France

We said: Brest 2-1 Montpellier HSC

 Brest's form to finish 2023 was phenomenal, and they have an excellent opportunity to pick up where they left off with a home clash here against a Montpellier side who have flattered to deceive this season. With many players away at AFCON and the Asian Cup too, Montpellier may have a tricky few weeks ahead, and despite the two incredible results on their last two visits here, that trend may end this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 22.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawMontpellier HSC
53.36% (0.249 0.25) 24.18% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06) 22.46% (-0.184 -0.18)
Both teams to score 51.52% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.28% (0.062000000000005 0.06)49.72% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.27% (0.055 0.05)71.73% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.43% (0.12100000000001 0.12)18.57% (-0.118 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.16% (0.2 0.2)49.83% (-0.197 -0.2)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.27% (-0.142 -0.14)36.72% (0.146 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.49% (-0.14 -0.14)73.51% (0.143 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Brest 53.35%
    Montpellier HSC 22.46%
    Draw 24.18%
BrestDrawMontpellier HSC
1-0 @ 11.48% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.68% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.67% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
3-1 @ 5.43% (0.027 0.03)
3-0 @ 5.42% (0.048 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 2.29% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.28% (0.029 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.15% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 53.35%
1-1 @ 11.5% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 6.82% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.18%
0-1 @ 6.83% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-2 @ 5.76% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.42% (-0.035 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.92% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.14% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 22.46%

How you voted: Brest vs Montpellier

Brest
71.4%
Draw
23.8%
Montpellier HSC
4.8%
21
Head to Head
Nov 26, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 13
Montpellier
1-3
Brest
Savanier (51' pen.)
Savanier (24'), Adams (90+6')
Esteve (20' og.), Pereira Lage (64'), Doumbia (90+3')
Lees-Melou (30'), Del Castillo (45')
> Preview
Feb 12, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 23
Montpellier
3-0
Brest
Herelle (4' og.), Savanier (17' pen.), Wahi (54')
> Preview
Aug 28, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 4
Brest
0-7
Montpellier

Lees-Melou (50')
Maouassa (6'), Wahi (10', 31'), Khazri (11'), Cozza (25'), Germain (64', 84')
Nordin (62'), Leroy (71')
> Preview
Apr 3, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 30
Montpellier
1-2
Brest
Savanier (90+3' pen.)
Mavididi (32'), Sakho (33')
Satriano (69'), Honorat (79')
Satriano (7'), Herelle (31'), Chardonnet (66'), Brassier (90+1')
> Preview
Dec 11, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 18
Brest
0-4
Montpellier

Herelle (62'), Magnetti (84')
Wahi (45+1'), Mavididi (47'), Sambia (60'), Germain (85')
Ferri (89')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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