Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 53.94%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 21.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (6.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.
Result | ||
Brest | Draw | Lorient |
53.94% ( 0.18) | 24.1% ( -0.07) | 21.95% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 51.12% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.06% ( 0.19) | 49.93% ( -0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.08% ( 0.17) | 71.92% ( -0.17) |
Brest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.57% ( 0.14) | 18.42% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.4% ( 0.23) | 49.59% ( -0.23) |
Lorient Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.67% ( 0) | 37.33% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.89% ( 0) | 74.11% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Brest | Draw | Lorient |
1-0 @ 11.63% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.27% Total : 53.94% | 1-1 @ 11.46% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.88% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.78% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 24.1% | 0-1 @ 6.78% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.67% Total : 21.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 57 |
4 | Lille | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
8 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
9 | Lyon | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 44 |
10 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |