National League | Gameweek 16
Nov 19, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Grimsby Town1 - 0Southend
Grimsby Town play host to Southend United on Friday evening knowing that they will move joint-top of the National League standings with a victory.
Meanwhile, 20th-placed Southend make the trip to Blundell Park looking for a second win in three games, a result which would move them clear of the bottom three.
Read more.
Match preview
There was a time not so long ago when Grimsby appeared to be in cruise control at this level, collecting 25 points from a possible 30 from September 4 onwards. However, a 1-0 defeat at lowly Wealdstone upset the applecart at Blundell Park, and Paul Hurst's side have since lost three more matches in all competitions. As well as three successive setbacks in the National League, Grimsby also suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to Kidderminster Harriers in the FA Cup. Hurst has suggested that he has been unhappy with the performances of several players, demanding a response ahead of what feels like an important fixture. At a time when Grimsby have been competing at the right end of the table, Southend are battling to avoid a third successive relegation and even remain in existence. The appointment of club legend Kevin Maher has gone some way to lifting spirits at Roots Hall, but supporters remain pessimistic about a prolonged improved run. Some progress has been made in recent games, the 4-1 win over bottom-placed Dover Athletic an absolute necessity and Maher's men stayed competitive against Woking. Nevertheless, they are still just one point above the drop zone ahead of one of their toughest matches on paper, a less-than-ideal scenario when attempting to build momentum. Despite losing five of their seven away games this season, positives can be taken from shipping just 10 goals, the most recent 1-0 setback at high-flying Boreham Wood a consequence of being reduced to 10 men.Grimsby Town National League form:
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
Grimsby Town form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
Southend United National League form:
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
Southend United form (all competitions):
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
Team News
Hurst must decide whether to give another opportunity to young winger Evan Khouri or hand a recall to Will Bapaga. The experienced Giles Coke may come back into the midfield, potentially as a replacement for Ben Fox. Ryan Taylor is expected to get the nod over Lenell John-Lewis in attack. Abu Ogogo remained as an unused substitute last time out, but the midfielder will be considered for a recall on Friday. Nathan Ralph is an alternative to Jack Bridge, but the rest of the side could stay the same. Grimsby Town possible starting lineup: McKeown; Efete, Waterfall, Towler, Revan; Coke, Hunt; Sousa, Clifton, Khouri; Taylor Southend United possible starting lineup: Arnold; Dimitriou, White, Hobson, Lopata; Brunt, Dunne, Phillips, Bridge; Dalby, MurphyWe said: Grimsby Town 3-1 Southend United
Given the form of their hosts, Southend will be confidence of causing an upset on the East Coast. However, we can only back the Mariners to return to winning ways, inflicting more misery on opponents who are under pressure to move clear of the drop zone.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 53.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Southend United had a probability of 21.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Southend United win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Grimsby Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Grimsby Town | Draw | Southend United |
| 53.64% | 25.22% | 21.15% |
| Both teams to score 46.83% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
