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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Sweden national football team
Nations League | League B
Sep 27, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
 
Slovenia national football team

Sweden
1 - 1
Slovenia

Forsberg (42')
Kulusevski (13'), Olsson (76')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Sesko (28')
Bijol (15'), Stojanovic (54'), Gnezda Cerin (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Sweden and Slovenia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sweden

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Serbia 4-1 Sweden
Saturday, September 24 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Slovenia

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Slovenia 2-1 Norway
Saturday, September 24 at 5pm in Nations League

We said: Sweden 2-1 Slovenia

 Though they may struggle to keep a clean sheet, having conceded at a rate of two goals per game in their last five matches, Sweden can snatch League B survival on the final day. If some talented forwards can click, then the hosts will edge out a Slovenia side lacking two top players through suspension. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 46.16%. A win for Slovenia had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Slovenia win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
SwedenDrawSlovenia
46.16% (0.20399999999999 0.2) 23.95% (0.041999999999998 0.04) 29.89% (-0.241 -0.24)
Both teams to score 59.21% (-0.287 -0.29)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.2% (-0.314 -0.31)42.8% (0.319 0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.8% (-0.313 -0.31)65.2% (0.31699999999999 0.32)
Sweden Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.26% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)18.74% (0.044999999999998 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.88% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)50.12% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Slovenia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.86% (-0.31400000000001 -0.31)27.14% (0.319 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.46% (-0.41399999999999 -0.41)62.54% (0.419 0.42)
Score Analysis
    Sweden 46.16%
    Slovenia 29.89%
    Draw 23.94%
SwedenDrawSlovenia
2-1 @ 9.3% (0.022 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.52% (0.108 0.11)
2-0 @ 7.13% (0.081 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.19% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 3.98% (0.039 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.39% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.17% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.67% (0.014 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.42% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 46.16%
1-1 @ 11.1% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-2 @ 6.06% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.09% (0.072 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.47% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.94%
1-2 @ 7.24% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-1 @ 6.63% (0.034 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.32% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.15% (-0.045 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.64% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.88% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.03% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 3%
Total : 29.89%

How you voted: Sweden vs Slovenia

Sweden
73.9%
Draw
14.1%
Slovenia
12.0%
142
Head to Head
Jun 2, 2022 7.45pm
League B4
Slovenia
0-2
Sweden

Stojanovic (37'), Zajc (41')
Forsberg (39' pen.), Kulusevski (88')
Olsson (43'), Krafth (83'), Kulusevski (85')
May 30, 2016 6.30pm
Sweden
0-0
Slovenia

Jokic (64'), Kurtic (75'), Krajnc (86')
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