Nations League | League B
Sep 24, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
We said: Serbia 1-0 Sweden
Sweden are going through a transitional phase, and are switching back to tried-and-trusted methods in search of their identity - several key players remain short of playing time at club level too. Therefore, Serbia can capitalise by dictating possession and scoring at least once through several attacking options.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 54.15% . A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Sweden had a probability of 21.99% .
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.72%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.34%) , while for a Sweden win it was 0-1 (6.6%) . The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
Result Serbia Draw Sweden 54.15% ( 0.07) 23.85% ( -0.08) 21.99% ( 0.01)
Both teams to score 51.94% ( 0.28)
51.12% ( 0.36) 48.87% ( -0.37)
29.03% ( 0.33) 70.96% ( -0.33)
82.04% ( 0.16) 17.95% ( -0.16)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 51.21% ( 0.28) 48.78% ( -0.28)
63.3% ( 0.22) 36.69% ( -0.22)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 26.51% ( 0.22) 73.48% ( -0.22)
Serbia 54.15%
Sweden 21.99%
Draw 23.85%
Serbia Draw Sweden 1-0 @ 11.31% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 5.56% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 54.15% 1-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.85% 0-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 1.75% Total : 21.99%
How you voted: Serbia vs Sweden
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rhs 2.0
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