Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.57%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 8.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.2%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.63%), while for a SC Farense win it was 2-1 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
8.31% ( -0.03) | 14.12% ( 0.04) | 77.57% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.75% ( -0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.51% ( -0.32) | 33.49% ( 0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.72% ( -0.36) | 55.28% ( 0.36) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.49% ( -0.3) | 46.51% ( 0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.89% ( -0.23) | 82.11% ( 0.23) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93% ( -0.07) | 6.99% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.4% ( -0.19) | 25.6% ( 0.19) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
2-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.33% Total : 8.31% | 1-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.87% Total : 14.12% | 0-2 @ 11.5% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 10.2% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 7.81% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 6.79% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 5.2% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 3.61% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 2.76% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 0-6 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) 1-6 @ 1.23% ( -0.02) 2-5 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.36% Total : 77.55% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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