Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 64.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 15.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.72%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vizela |
64.13% ( -0.25) | 20.46% ( 0.11) | 15.41% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 50.89% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.73% ( -0.17) | 44.28% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.35% ( -0.17) | 66.65% ( 0.17) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.91% ( -0.12) | 13.09% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.29% ( -0.26) | 39.71% ( 0.26) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.56% ( 0.09) | 41.44% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.05% ( 0.08) | 77.95% ( -0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vizela |
2-0 @ 11.21% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.03% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.6% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.4% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.04% Total : 64.12% | 1-1 @ 9.72% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.97% Total : 20.46% | 0-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.71% Total : 15.41% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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